Military Analysis of Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine by Howard Hisdal, CD, MA
- Too small an invasion, Germany used 800,000 troops in Army Group South under Field Marshal Von Rundstedt in 1941, not 190,000 soldiers. The Russian state does not have the resources to sustain this invasion. It will have fewer resources as sanctions take hold.
- Russia’s GDP is 11th in World at 1.53 Trillion dollars and $10,846 per capita. Canada’s GDP is 10th in World at 1.647 Trillion dollars and $44,841 per capita.
- Soviets used 200,000 soldiers and 6,000 tanks in Hungary in 1956. Marshal Konev commanded. The Hungarians were in middle of a revolution. The Soviet Union won.
- Soviets used 250,000 soldiers and 2,000 tanks in Czechoslovakia in 1968, then increased strength to 400,000 troops. The Soviet Union won.
- Soviets used 115,000 soldiers in Afghanistan in 1979 and cycled about 600,000 through. The Soviet Union fell after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. Mujahadeen won with use of Stinger surface to air missiles supplied by the West.
- Standard NATO military doctrine is to attack at odds of 3 to 1 in your favour.
Napoleon said that in war the moral is to the physical as three is to one. This means that Ukraine has great strength because it has a strong moral cause. The mass mobilization of all men from 18 to 60 means Ukraine has a potential army of 4 million motivated soldiers.
Military philosopher Von Clausewitz said to make war you need to have the people on side, the army on side, and the government on side. If one of these three legs of the strategic stool is broken then defeat is likely.
The Ukrainians can win by:
- Breaking the Russian army’s will to fight. This means defeating the attacks on the cities and destroying the Russian supply convoys and taking huge columns of prisoners. This will take hard fighting and heavy weapons such as tanks and jet fighters from the West. The Ukrainians must fight like the Finns in the Winter War of 1939-1940 where for every Finn that died five Russians died. Russian soldiers must be allowed to surrender and treated well after surrender.
- Breaking the Russian people’s will to fight. There are anti-war protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Allowing the captured Russian soldiers to phone their mothers is an excellent idea. Turning Russian prisoners over to the International Red Cross to be returned to their families would get the truth back to Russia. Somehow the Russian people must learn how the rest of the world sees this. Returned prisoners will tell the truth, even if they are not allowed to talk, their presence will speak volumes. This is the information war.
- Breaking the Russian government’s will to fight. This could mean the senior government officials or oligarchs or military officers arresting Putin and turning him over to the International Court of Justice at the Hague. Here is where the international pressure and the sanctions will help. The people may be fooled, but the Russian government will know the situation.
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